Brolte › Home Energy Upgrade Ladder › Guides › Heat pumps
Will a heat pump lower my bill?
If your home is heated by electric baseboards or an electric furnace, a heat pump cuts the heating bill sharply. If it's heated by gas, propane or oil, it depends on what electricity and your fuel cost in your state.
Short answer: over electric resistance heat, a heat pump saves about 55% of the heating cost. Over propane it costs less to run in 49 of the 51 states in the table (DC counted as one), over heating oil in 48, and over natural gas in 18: mostly in the South and the Pacific Northwest, where electricity is cheap compared with gas.
Why prices decide it
A furnace burns fuel to make heat; a heat pump uses electricity to move heat indoors from outside. The ladder assumes your furnace turns about 80% of its fuel into heat (83% for oil), and that a heat pump delivers 2.64 units of heat for each unit of electricity over a season, its rated efficiency. So the heat from a therm of gas or propane takes about 8.9 kWh from a heat pump, and the heat from a therm of oil about 9.2 kWh. Where 8.9 kWh of electricity cost less than a therm of gas, the heat pump is cheaper to run; where they cost more, it isn't.
By state
The table compares running costs only, at each state's prices: the change in your heating cost if a heat pump supplied the same heat as your furnace or boiler. It doesn't depend on the size of your bill.
Heating with a heat pump instead of a furnace or boiler: the change in heating cost at each state's prices
| State | Natural gas | Propane | Heating oil |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 11% less | 61% less | 48% less |
| Alaska | 90% more | 15% less | 15% less |
| Arizona | 22% less | 51% less | 51% less |
| Arkansas | 40% less | 53% less | 57% less |
| California | 34% more (see note) | 5% more | 5% more |
| Colorado | 41% more | 39% less | 47% less |
| Connecticut | 47% more | 41% less | 10% less |
| Delaware | 3% less | 60% less | 49% less |
| District of Columbia | 38% more | 41% less | 25% less |
| Florida | 42% less | 73% less | 47% less |
| Georgia | 16% less | 60% less | 48% less |
| Hawaii | 28% less | 38% more | 38% more |
| Idaho | 65% more | 57% less | 60% less |
| Illinois | 66% more | 20% less | 32% less |
| Indiana | 44% more | 44% less | 39% less |
| Iowa | 28% more | 28% less | 44% less |
| Kansas | 3% more | 35% less | 45% less |
| Kentucky | 8% less | 58% less | 46% less |
| Louisiana | 34% less | 63% less | 59% less |
| Maine | 49% more | 28% less | about the same |
| Maryland | 18% more | 52% less | 34% less |
| Massachusetts | 9% more | 28% less | 6% less |
| Michigan | 83% more | 24% less | 20% less |
| Minnesota | 37% more | 32% less | 43% less |
| Mississippi | 8% less | 60% less | 53% less |
| Missouri | 14% less | 46% less | 50% less |
| Montana | 46% more | 44% less | 56% less |
| Nebraska | 7% more | 35% less | 44% less |
| Nevada | 24% more | 58% less | 58% less |
| New Hampshire | 27% more | 40% less | 13% less |
| New Jersey | 54% more | 47% less | 29% less |
| New Mexico | 34% more | 57% less | 51% less |
| New York | 55% more | 35% less | 16% less |
| North Carolina | 25% less | 64% less | 47% less |
| North Dakota | 30% more | 39% less | 55% less |
| Ohio | 38% more | 43% less | 38% less |
| Oklahoma | 6% less | 50% less | 51% less |
| Oregon | 13% less | 51% less | 51% less |
| Pennsylvania | 30% more | 43% less | 29% less |
| Rhode Island | 28% more | 34% less | 9% less |
| South Carolina | 15% less | 63% less | 47% less |
| South Dakota | 33% more | 36% less | 49% less |
| Tennessee | 2% more | 65% less | 51% less |
| Texas | 25% less | 56% less | 49% less |
| Utah | 13% more | 53% less | 58% less |
| Vermont | 32% more | 48% less | 22% less |
| Virginia | 8% less | 61% less | 46% less |
| Washington | 22% less | 55% less | 55% less |
| West Virginia | 8% more | 63% less | 47% less |
| Wisconsin | 50% more | 20% less | 28% less |
| Wyoming | 19% more | 48% less | 55% less |
Natural gas prices are each state's heating-season average. Propane and heating oil prices are averages of EIA's weekly survey over the heating season; it covers only the states where those fuels are common (others use their region's price) and leaves out taxes. In California, the tool asks for your region and, for gas-heated homes, uses the state's own figures for each climate zone (California eTRM) instead of this comparison. For the example home, a heat pump comes out ahead there only on the coast. Calculated with the tool's October 2026 prices.
What can change the answer
- Cold weather. The rated efficiency is a seasonal average. In cold climates, backup heat brings it down (Wisconsin's manual implies about 11 kWh per therm rather than 8.9); mild climates do better.
- Replacing your furnace anyway. Then the fair comparison is a new gas or propane furnace at about 95%, which shrinks the heat pump's advantage.
- Central air. If you have it, a heat pump also replaces the air conditioner, and the ladder credits about 12% of your cooling cost for the heat pump's higher efficiency.
- High altitude. In Colorado, Idaho, Montana, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming, the ladder's cost includes an allowance for the larger unit needed at altitude.
Over electric resistance heat
Baseboards and electric furnaces turn each kWh into one unit of heat, so a heat pump saves about 55% of the heating cost and 12% of the cooling cost (Illinois manual, section 5.3.1). In western Washington and Oregon, the ladder uses the Regional Technical Forum's measured savings instead: 2,920 kWh a year, priced at your state's electricity rate.
What the ladder does with it
If a heat pump would raise your bill at today's prices, your ladder leaves it off. That is an answer about running cost only: it doesn't weigh the other reasons people switch, such as adding cooling, comfort or emissions.
Your own numbers
Your heating system, your bills and your state's prices decide your figure. The Upgrade Ladder works it out from your own bills, including whether a heat pump belongs on your ladder at all.
Build your ladder How the estimates are made
Sources
- Heat pumps over electric resistance and fuel switching: Illinois Statewide TRM v14.0, section 5.3.1.
- Western Washington and Oregon: Regional Technical Forum, central heat pump upgrades and conversions workbook v8.1.
- California gas-heated homes: California eTRM (2026 cycle), per climate zone.
- Cold-climate check: Wisconsin TRM 2026, as cited in the tool's notes on this upgrade.
- Energy prices: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) electricity, natural gas, propane and heating oil prices.
- Every step in detail: how the estimates are made.
More guides: Heat pump water heaters: where they pay off · How much of your energy goes to heating and cooling · Is replacing windows worth it for the energy savings · all guides